The Geopolitics of Venezuela
As Carol and I watched a football game, she said, “What do you think about the Venezuelan situation?”
It’s a question most Americans have thought about. If you follow politics at all, you probably have a quick thought on the actions of the Trump Administration.
I appreciated my wife’s question.
The narrative is that Nicolas Maduro was an unelected dictator who is either the leader of a drug cartel or openly supports the Venezuelan cartels.
That may be one reason, but it only tells a fraction of the reality.
Bipartisan Support: The initial $10 million reward for Maduro came from the first Trump Administration. However, the Biden Administration increased the reward to $25 million, and the second Trump Administration bumped it to $50 million. Evidently, $50 million was the amount needed to land key intelligence.
I shared this with Carol as the capture of Maduro was not a “Republican” thing. Both sides of our political system knew about this and voted for Maduro’s capture.
Wasn’t this just about drugs? If so, why haven’t we used similar tactics with other countries?
Energy: At more than 300 billion barrels of oil (18% of global reserves), Venezuela has the largest oil deposits on the planet, conveniently located in the Western Hemisphere.
Further complicating the energy sector, five countries dominate global energy reserves with more than one trillion barrels of reserves. Canada and Venezuela are in the Western Hemisphere. But 60% of the top ten oil producing countries are in the Middle East.
As of 2026, daily Venezuelan oil production fell to 1.1 million barrels, down from a peak of 3.5 million barrels. In comparison, Saudi Arabia produces 10 million barrels daily while the U.S. produces more than 13 million. This lack of production is starving the Venezuelan economy, making them vulnerable to other countries, especially China, Russia and Iran, who are seeking to secure resources.
Furthermore, Venezuelan oil is quite heavy. As such, it requires more skill needed to extract and refine it than Venezuela currently possesses.
Rare Earth Metals: At the same time, Venezuela’s rare earth reserves are estimated to be at least 300,000 metric tons, primarily concentrated in the Orinoco Mining Arc and the Guayana Shield. These critical minerals include a mix of commodities, including coltan, diamonds, aluminum, cobalt, copper, lead and nickel which are indispensable for products such as phones, batteries, TV screens, lasers, fighter jets and missiles.
Lacking a well-thought-out plan for mining resources, Venezuela has fallen victim to gangs and guerilla groups attempting to control these valuable resources.
China and Russia have been highly aggressive in securing access to Venezuelan resources. This has included “debt-for-oil” schemes and strategic partnerships designed to bypass international sanctions.
China is currently buying 50% to 80% of the country’s oil exports. China is bypassing U.S. sanctions by trading through third parties or smaller non-traditional firms.
China has also financed major mining and infrastructure allowing them to effectively control a significant portion of Venezuelan mineral refining and processing capacity.
Russian state-owned firms hold significant claims to Venezuelan oil reserves. Russia has aggressively supplied military equipment such as jets, tanks and missile systems in exchange for energy reserves.
Given this, the situation with the U.S. and Venezuela is not about ideology or morality, but geopolitics. The Western Hemisphere is a core security zone for the U.S. If the U.S. does not make an affirmative stand in Venezuela, then the country will be run by China, Russia and possibly Iran.
If the U.S. is successful investing into Venezuela, cash flow will improve increasing Gross Domestic Product. That increase in cash flow should improve the lives of Venezuelan citizens. If the U.S. can source more of its long-term energy needs from Venezuela, it frees up middle eastern oil for Europe. In the process, Europe will distance themselves from Putin and Russian energy.
In discussing this with a client, Rose asked if increasing production would lower oil prices at a time when prices are already low. With any commodity, increased supply with similar demand lowers prices making it harder on the world’s oil producers, notably those in Texas. However, the flip side is that lower oil prices give the average family more spending money at the grocery store.
None of this will be easy or quick. Most likely, we will know the outcomes of the Venezuelan gambit a decade from now. However, doing nothing delivers valuable assets to nations that are not our friends.
Dave Sather is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER and the CEO of the Sather Financial Group, a fee-only and fiduciary strategic planning and investment management firm.
